--- title: As Monetary Velocity Continues to Fall, Deflation Risk Greater than Inflation Risk for the Moment description: While there are many ways to describe the economy, perhaps the simplest is using the Monetarist view. Under this view, GDP is equal to the product of Money image: https://blog.globalviewinv.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/V-chart1.jpg --- [![3_Global-View-SMALL_long_black](https://globalviewinv.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/3_Global-View-SMALL_long_black-scaled.png#130)](https://globalviewinv.com) ✕ - [About Us](https://globalviewinv.com/about-us/) - [Our Story](https://globalviewinv.com/about-us/) - [Our Founder](https://globalviewinv.com/about-us/) - [Meet Our Team](https://globalviewinv.com/about-us/) - [Your Fee-Only Fiduciary Partner](https://globalviewinv.com/about-us/) - [Referral Partners](https://globalviewinv.com/about-us/) - [Why Global View](https://globalviewinv.com/why-global-view/) - [Your Independent Advocate](https://globalviewinv.com/why-global-view/your-independent-advocate/) - [Real Risk Management](https://globalviewinv.com/why-global-view/real-risk-management/) - [Family-Office-Style Services](https://globalviewinv.com/why-global-view/family-office-style-services/) - [What We Do](https://globalviewinv.com/what-we-do-global-view/) - [Comprehensive Financial Planning](https://globalviewinv.com/what-we-do-global-view/comprehensive-financial-planning/) - [Setting the Path to Retirement](https://globalviewinv.com/setting-path-retirement/) - [Worry-Free Portfolio Management](https://globalviewinv.com/what-we-do-global-view/worry-free-portfolio-management/) - [Tax and Estate Planning Coordination](https://globalviewinv.com/what-we-do-global-view/tax-and-estate-planning/) - [Navigating Life After Loss](https://globalviewinv.com/navigating-life-after-loss/) - [Our Fees](https://globalviewinv.com/what-we-do-global-view/our-fees/) - [Who We Serve](https://globalviewinv.com/who-we-serve/) - [Client Experiences](https://globalviewinv.com/who-we-serve/client-experiences/) - [Contact Us](https://globalviewinv.com/contact-us/) - [Resources](https://globalviewinv.com/resources/) - [News & Insights](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/) - [eBooks](https://globalviewinv.com/ebooks/) - [Quick Guides](https://globalviewinv.com/quick-guides/) - [Videos](https://www.youtube.com/@Globalviewinv) - [Client Login](https://globalviewinv.com/client-login/) - [About Us](https://globalviewinv.com/about-us/) - [Our Story](https://globalviewinv.com/about-us/) - [Our Founder](https://globalviewinv.com/about-us/) - [Meet Our Team](https://globalviewinv.com/about-us/) - [Your Fee-Only Fiduciary Partner](https://globalviewinv.com/about-us/) - [Referral Partners](https://globalviewinv.com/about-us/) - [Why Global View](https://globalviewinv.com/why-global-view/) - [Your Independent Advocate](https://globalviewinv.com/why-global-view/your-independent-advocate/) - [Real Risk Management](https://globalviewinv.com/why-global-view/real-risk-management/) - [Family-Office-Style Services](https://globalviewinv.com/why-global-view/family-office-style-services/) - [What We Do](https://globalviewinv.com/what-we-do-global-view/) - [Comprehensive Financial Planning](https://globalviewinv.com/what-we-do-global-view/comprehensive-financial-planning/) - [Setting the Path to Retirement](https://globalviewinv.com/setting-path-retirement/) - [Worry-Free Portfolio Management](https://globalviewinv.com/what-we-do-global-view/worry-free-portfolio-management/) - [Tax and Estate Planning Coordination](https://globalviewinv.com/what-we-do-global-view/tax-and-estate-planning/) - [Navigating Life After Loss](https://globalviewinv.com/navigating-life-after-loss/) - [Our Fees](https://globalviewinv.com/what-we-do-global-view/our-fees/) [![2_Global-View-TAGLINE_stacked_white](https://globalviewinv.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/2_Global-View-TAGLINE_stacked_white-scaled.png#123)](https://globalviewinv.com) - [Who We Serve](https://globalviewinv.com/who-we-serve/) - [Client Experiences](https://globalviewinv.com/who-we-serve/client-experiences/) - [Contact Us](https://globalviewinv.com/contact-us/) - [Resources](https://globalviewinv.com/resources/) - [News & Insights](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/) - [eBooks](https://globalviewinv.com/ebooks/) - [Quick Guides](https://globalviewinv.com/quick-guides/) - [Videos](https://www.youtube.com/@Globalviewinv) - [Client Login](https://globalviewinv.com/client-login/) [![6_Global-View-Icon-black](https://globalviewinv.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/6_Global-View-Icon-black-scaled.png#68)](https://globalviewinv.com) # As Monetary Velocity Continues to Fall, Deflation Risk Greater than Inflation Risk for the Moment ![](https://globalviewinv.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/gold-line.jpg) # Global View Investment Blog [![](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/V-chart1.jpg)](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/2012/11/as-monetary-velocity-continues-fall-deflation-risk-greater-inflation-risk-moment) # As Monetary Velocity Continues to Fall, Deflation Risk Greater than Inflation Risk for the Moment [Market Volatility](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/tag/market-volatility), [Global View News & Commentary](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/tag/global-view-news-commentary) Nov 12th, 2012 By: [Ken Moore](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/author/ken-moore) While there are many ways to describe the economy, perhaps the simplest is using the [Monetarist](http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/Monetarism.html) view.  Under this view, GDP (the economy) is equal to the product of Money (M) and the Velocity of Money (V).  As the chart below illustrates, the Velocity of Money has been dropping since the bursting of the credit bubble, interrupted only briefly mid year 2009 with the brief economic recovery.  Tumbling velocity of money is a result of lack of confidence.  Bob believes this is a harbinger of a probable recession in the coming year. [![Investment Advisory | Monetary Velocity | Inflation Chart](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/V-chart1.jpg?width=1071&height=643&name=V-chart1.jpg "Investment Advisory | Monetary Velocity | Inflation Chart")](http://globalviewinv.com/2012/11/as-monetary-velocity-continues-fall-deflation-risk-greater-inflation-risk-moment/v-chart-2/) In this interview, Robert Arnott, who manages Pimco All Asset All Authority (a fund we have classified as Long-Term Less Volatile) discusses this phenomenon and how it is likely to affect inflation as the coming recession turns into expansion.  His view is that a market correction is likely due to the risk of recession.  However, when the economy begins expanding anew, as the recession ends, Monetary Velocity will pick up and with it risk of high inflation.   [Listen to Robert Arnott's interview by clicking here](http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/11/11_Rob_Arnott_files/Rob%20Arnott%2011%3A11%3A2012.mp3). ![Ken Moore](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/hubfs/Ken%20Moore%20Global%20View.jpg) ### Written by [Ken Moore](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/author/ken-moore) Ken’s focus is on investment strategy, research and analysis as well as financial planning strategy. Ken plays the lead role of our team identifying investments that fit the philosophy of the Global View approach. He is a strict adherent to Margin of Safety investment principles and has a strong belief in the power of business cycles. On a personal note, Ken was born in 1964 in Lexington Virginia, has been married since 1991. Immediately before locating to Greenville in 1997, Ken lived in New York City. [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/kenneth-moore-cfp-r-4492a47/) [Read other posts](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/author/ken-moore) This is a search field with an auto-suggest feature attached. - There are no suggestions because the search field is empty. ### **Are you on track for the future you want?** Schedule a free, no-strings-attached portfolio review today. [Talk With Us](https://globalviewinv-4350261.hs-sites.com/contact-us?hsLang=en-us) ### Topics - [Financial Planning (182)](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/tag/financial-planning) - [Retirement Planning (136)](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/tag/retirement-planning) - [Global View News & Commentary (135)](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/tag/global-view-news-commentary) - [Financial Advice (90)](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/tag/financial-advice) - [Fee-Only Fiduciary (75)](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/tag/fee-only-fiduciary) - [Investment & Portfolio Management (74)](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/tag/investment-portfolio-management) - [Market Volatility (55)](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/tag/market-volatility) - [Financial Literacy (37)](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/tag/financial-literacy) - [Taxes & Tax Planning (36)](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/tag/taxes-tax-planning) - [Living in the Carolinas (28)](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/tag/living-in-the-carolinas) ### Popular posts - [![How to Calculate Your Break-Even Age](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/hubfs/financial%20advisor%20Greenville%20SC%20Global%20View%20Social%20Security%20SC%20NC.jpg)](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/how-to-calculate-your-break-even-age?hsLang=en-us) [How to Calculate Your Break-Even Age](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/how-to-calculate-your-break-even-age?hsLang=en-us) by [Erin Milner](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/author/erin-sweatt) June 21, 2021 - [![2025 Year-End Tax Planning Checklist](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/hubfs/AdobeStock_514048863.jpeg)](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/2025-year-end-tax-planning-checklist?hsLang=en-us) [2025 Year-End Tax Planning Checklist](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/2025-year-end-tax-planning-checklist?hsLang=en-us) by [Matthew Crider](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/author/matthew-crider) November 21, 2025 - [![Roth Conversions: When They Make Sense and What You Should Consider](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/hubfs/Untitled%20design%20(4).jpg)](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/roth-conversions-when-they-make-sense-and-what-you-should-consider?hsLang=en-us) [Roth Conversions: When They Make Sense and What You Should Consider](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/roth-conversions-when-they-make-sense-and-what-you-should-consider?hsLang=en-us) by [Matthew Crider](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/author/matthew-crider) January 07, 2026 - [![One Big Beautiful Bill Act: Key Tax Changes You Should Know](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/hubfs/AdobeStock_1531178013.jpeg)](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-key-tax-changes-you-should-know?hsLang=en-us) [One Big Beautiful Bill Act: Key Tax Changes You Should Know](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-key-tax-changes-you-should-know?hsLang=en-us) by [Joe Hines](https://blog.globalviewinv.com/author/joe-hines) November 26, 2025 ### Subscribe to Global View Insights Get our quarterly newsletter that brings you news, tips and tricks from around the web and Global View’s blog. [![4_Global-View-GVIA-Emblem_white-ALT](https://globalviewinv.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/4_Global-View-GVIA-Emblem_white-ALT-1.png#158)](https://globalviewinv.com) #### About Us Global View Investment Advisors LLC is a fee-only, fiduciary financial advisory firm headquartered in Greenville, South Carolina and serving investors nationwide. Our mission is to be our clients' advocate. We provide truly independent, conflict-free advice and complete wealth management services, so you can protect and maximize the wealth you’ve built. #### Our Locations ##### Downtown Greenville, SC 800 E Washington St., Suite A Greenville, SC 29601 [864.272.0818](tel:8642720818) ##### Columbia, SC 1320 Main Street, Suite 300 Columbia, SC 29201 [864.272.0818](tel:8642720818) #### Quick Links - [Why Global View](https://globalviewinv.com/why-global-view/) - [What We Do](https://globalviewinv.com/what-we-do-global-view/) - [Who We Serve](https://globalviewinv.com/who-we-serve/) - [Privacy Policy](https://globalviewinv.com/privacy-policy/) - [ADV](https://globalviewinv.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Form-ADV-II-Brochure.pdf) - [CRS](https://globalviewinv.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/CRS-Form-_-Global-View-Investment-Advisors-LLC.pdf) © 2025 Global View Investment Advisors, LLC • Website by [Waypost](https://www.waypostmarketing.com/) [![](https://globalviewinv.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/fon-standard-color-logo-png-1000-240.webp)](https://www.feeonlynetwork.com/) [![](https://globalviewinv.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/napfa-logo-white@2x.png)](https://www.napfa.org/) [![](https://globalviewinv.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/ria.webp)](https://www.findyourindependentadvisor.com/) [![](https://globalviewinv.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/bbb.webp)](https://www.bbb.org/upstatesc/business-reviews/investment-advisory-services/global-view-investment-advisors-llc-in-greenville-sc-90010298) [![](https://globalviewinv.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/paladin.webp)](https://www.paladinregistry.com/financial-advisor/greenville-south-carolina/Kenneth.Moore)